Sheikh Sameer
Sheikh Sameer
For generations, Kashmir’s agricultural economy has been built around a simple but powerful relationship between people and seasons. Snow in winter, a measured rise in temperature in spring, adequate moisture during crop development and a relatively predictable autumn once allowed farmers to plan their lives around the agricultural calendar.
That certainty is now weakening.
The changing climate is no longer an abstract environmental issue for Kashmir. It is increasingly visible in orchards, saffron fields and walnut groves. Warmer winters, erratic rainfall, declining snowfall, untimely rain, hailstorms, dry spells, heat stress and sudden extreme weather events are disturbing the conditions under which Kashmir’s most valuable crops evolved.
And the stakes are enormous.
Apple, saffron and walnut are not merely agricultural commodities. They represent livelihoods, family assets, rural employment, trade and Kashmir’s connection with national and international markets. Apple alone dominates Jammu and Kashmir’s fruit economy. NITI Aayog’s Roadmap for Horticulture Development in the UT of J&K @2047 notes that apple accounted for about half of the total fruit area and more than 77% of fruit production in 2022-23. Walnut occupies about 93% of the dry-fruit area.
The question, therefore, is not whether climate change will affect Kashmir’s farmers. It already is.
The real question is: can Kashmir adapt quickly enough to protect the farmer?
The winter that agriculture depends upon
Kashmir’s agricultural strength has historically depended upon its cold climate.
Apple trees, for example, need a substantial period of winter chilling to break dormancy properly. Research on Himalayan apple cultivation indicates that many varieties require roughly 1,200–1,500 chilling hours, while insufficient chilling can lead to poor fruit formation.
This makes warming winters particularly dangerous.
The problem is not simply that Kashmir is becoming warmer. It is that the sequence of seasons is becoming less predictable.
A warmer-than-usual winter can cause fruit trees to awaken earlier. If temperatures subsequently fall, flowers become vulnerable to frost. If flowering happens too early, pollination can also be affected.
Research from Kashmir illustrates this risk. A study comparing apple phenology in 2017 and the unusually warm winter of 2018 found that several stages of apple development occurred significantly earlier in 2018. Full bloom advanced by nearly 10 days, leaving cultivars more exposed to spring frost.
For a farmer, this is not merely a scientific observation.
It can mean an orchard full of flowers one week and a damaged crop the next.
Apple: A giant industry facing a changing climate
The scale of Kashmir’s apple economy makes the climate threat particularly serious.
Jammu and Kashmir produced approximately 20.40 lakh metric tonnes of apples in 2022-23, 20.64 lakh tonnes in 2023-24 and around 21.10 lakh tonnes in 2024-25 according to government data reported in 2026.
These figures demonstrate the continuing strength of the sector. But production totals alone can be misleading.
An industry can produce more fruit nationally while individual farmers face greater uncertainty and rising costs.
Climate change is affecting several stages of the apple cycle simultaneously. Warmer winters can reduce chilling. Sudden spring temperature changes can affect flowering. Hailstorms can destroy fruit. Heat can affect fruit colour and size. Erratic rainfall can create disease pressure, while prolonged dry periods increase irrigation requirements.
The geographical pattern of apple cultivation itself is beginning to tell a story.
Research has documented a tendency for apple cultivation to shift towards higher elevations as temperatures rise, while some lower-altitude areas become less suitable because they struggle to receive sufficient winter chilling.
This could eventually create a difficult situation.
What happens to farmers who own orchards at lower elevations?
They cannot simply move their ancestral land uphill.
Saffron: When Kashmir’s most precious spice loses its rhythm
If apple represents the scale of Kashmir’s horticultural economy, saffron represents its uniqueness.
Pampore’s saffron fields are part of Kashmir’s cultural and agricultural identity. Yet saffron may be among the clearest examples of how climate variability can directly undermine a specialised crop.
A Reuters report in January 2025 highlighted the severity of the problem: Kashmir’s saffron production reportedly fell from about 8 metric tonnes in 2010-11 to 2.6 tonnes in 2023-24. Rising temperatures and erratic rainfall were identified among the challenges facing growers.
This is particularly worrying because saffron is a high-value crop. It requires enormous labour during a very short flowering period, with flowers traditionally harvested by hand.
Climate change can disturb precisely the conditions that saffron needs.
Studies have long warned that changes in temperature and rainfall patterns can affect saffron cultivation in Kashmir.
But there is another dimension to the saffron crisis: land-use change.
Pampore is not only an agricultural landscape. It is also close to the expanding Srinagar urban region. Agricultural land is under pressure from construction and infrastructure.
This means the saffron farmer is facing a double challenge: the climate is changing while the land available for traditional cultivation is also under pressure.
That is why the recent experiments with controlled-environment saffron cultivation are significant.
Researchers at SKUAST-K have experimented with indoor cultivation using controlled conditions, with the objective of reducing climate-related crop failure. Reuters reported that these experiments showed promising results in managing temperature stress. �
Such innovation should not replace traditional saffron cultivation.
Instead, it should become another tool available to farmers.
Walnut: The silent climate warning
Walnut receives less public attention than apple and saffron, but economically it is equally important.
Jammu and Kashmir dominates India’s walnut sector. APEDA identifies J&K as the country’s largest walnut-producing region, while NITI Aayog’s horticulture roadmap estimates that J&K accounted for about 97% of national walnut production, based on the cited 2022-23 comparison.
Walnut is therefore not simply another dry fruit.
It is a strategic agricultural asset for Kashmir.
The crop is also deeply connected with traditional farming systems. In many areas, walnut trees have historically been maintained for generations. Unlike annual crops, a walnut orchard represents a long-term investment.
But that long-term character creates a climate vulnerability.
A farmer who plants or maintains a walnut tree today is making a decision for decades. If the climate becomes significantly warmer during that period, the ecological conditions that made a particular location ideal may gradually change.
NITI Aayog data also points to an important structural problem: walnut occupies a very large share of J&K’s dry-fruit area, but productivity remains an issue.
Therefore, climate adaptation and productivity improvement have to go together.
Extreme weather is becoming an economic problem
Climate change does not always arrive as a slow rise in temperature.
For farmers, the most damaging manifestation can be an extreme event.
A single hailstorm can destroy an orchard. A sudden cloudburst can wash away soil. Excessive rain close to harvest can damage fruit quality. A prolonged dry spell can stress crops. A landslide can cut the road to the market.
The vulnerability does not end when the crop is harvested.
Kashmir’s apple economy depends heavily on transportation to markets outside the Valley. A climate disaster that blocks roads can therefore become a market disaster.
The 2025 apple season offered a powerful example. Severe flooding, landslides and prolonged closure of the Jammu-Srinagar highway reportedly caused losses estimated at ₹6–7 billion for apple growers and associated businesses, while packaging costs also rose sharply.
This demonstrates an important reality:
Climate resilience cannot stop at the farm gate.
A farmer may successfully grow a crop, yet lose money because the road is blocked, trucks are stranded or the market price collapses.
The farmer cannot fight climate change alone
It would be unfair to tell Kashmir’s farmers simply to “adapt”.
Adaptation costs money.
A farmer needs access to weather information, irrigation, crop insurance, hail protection, improved varieties, cold storage, grading facilities, modern packaging, market intelligence and affordable credit.
This is where government policy becomes critical.
Kashmir needs a comprehensive Climate-Resilient Horticulture Mission rather than isolated schemes.
Apple growers should be supported in adopting suitable high-density and climate-adapted varieties, while research must continue into low-chill cultivars suited to changing conditions.
Weather stations and hyperlocal forecasting should be expanded into farming areas. A farmer in Shopian or Kulgam should receive a practical warning before a hailstorm or frost event—not simply a general weather bulletin for the entire Valley.
Hail nets and frost-protection systems should become more accessible.
Micro-irrigation and rainwater harvesting need greater attention because declining snowpack and irregular precipitation can create water stress.
And crop insurance must become faster and more farmer-friendly.
Kashmir needs climate-smart farmers, not climate-dependent farmers
Technology can also transform the response.
Satellite imagery, drones, soil sensors, automated weather stations and artificial intelligence can help identify water stress, disease outbreaks and crop damage earlier.
Imagine an apple grower receiving a mobile alert saying that temperatures are likely to fall below a critical threshold in the next few hours.
Imagine a saffron farmer receiving a forecast indicating abnormal rainfall during a sensitive stage.
Imagine walnut growers using soil-moisture monitoring to irrigate only when required.
These technologies are no longer futuristic ideas. The challenge is making them affordable and accessible to ordinary farmers.
Farmer Producer Organisations and cooperatives can play an important role here.
A small farmer may not be able to afford a drone or weather station.
A group of 100 farmers can.
Diversification is insurance against uncertainty
Kashmir should also avoid becoming excessively dependent on a single crop.
Apple will remain central to the Valley’s economy, but climate risk makes diversification increasingly important.
Cherry, pear, plum, vegetables, medicinal plants, protected cultivation and other suitable crops can provide alternative sources of income.
This does not mean abandoning traditional crops.
It means building a farming system in which the failure of one crop does not destroy the entire household economy.
The same principle applies to saffron.
Controlled-environment cultivation, improved corm management, scientific irrigation and better post-harvest processing can help preserve saffron while reducing climate vulnerability.
For walnuts, rejuvenation of old orchards, improved varieties, scientific pruning, processing and branding can increase returns without necessarily expanding cultivated land.
Protecting the ecosystem is protecting the farmer
Ultimately, climate resilience cannot be separated from ecological protection.
Forests, wetlands, springs, glaciers and water bodies are not merely environmental assets. They are part of Kashmir’s agricultural infrastructure.
The disappearance of a spring can mean the disappearance of irrigation.
The degradation of a wetland can increase flood risk.
The loss of snow can reduce summer water availability.
The destruction of forests can worsen soil erosion and runoff.
Recent reports of severe water stress in Kashmir—including springs running dry and major rainfall deficits—show how closely agriculture is tied to the Valley’s broader water system.
Therefore, protecting nature is not an optional environmental agenda.
It is agricultural policy.
Can Kashmir’s farmers survive the climate shock?
Yes—but only if adaptation begins before climate change makes traditional farming economically impossible.
Kashmir still possesses enormous advantages: fertile soils, skilled farmers, globally recognised products, unique agro-climatic conditions, established markets and strong agricultural traditions.
But these advantages cannot be taken for granted.
The future Kashmir farmer may need to be part farmer, part entrepreneur and part climate manager.
The government will have to provide science and infrastructure.
Universities will have to provide research.
Banks will have to provide affordable finance.
Insurance companies will have to provide meaningful protection.
Private companies can provide technology and market access.
And consumers must be willing to pay a fair price for quality Kashmiri produce.
The story of apple, saffron and walnut is ultimately the story of Kashmir itself.
These crops survived political upheavals, economic changes and generations of transformation because the land continued to provide the conditions they needed.
Now the land itself is changing.
The challenge before Kashmir is therefore not simply to save an apple tree, protect a saffron field or preserve a walnut grove.
It is to preserve the relationship between Kashmir’s farmer and Kashmir’s climate.
If that relationship is allowed to break, the consequences will extend far beyond agriculture—to employment, rural incomes, food security, culture and the Valley’s economy.
But if science, traditional knowledge and policy are brought together, climate change does not have to become the end of Kashmir’s horticultural story.
It can become the moment when Kashmir finally moves from climate-dependent farming to climate-resilient farming.
The choice is still ours—but the window for making that choice is getting smaller.
M S Nazki
