New Battleground: The Shift of Terrorism from Kashmir Valley to Pir Panjal

The Pir Panjal region of Jammu and Kashmir, encompassing districts like Reasi, Poonch, and Rajouri, has experienced a significant resurgence in terrorist activities. For nearly two decades, this area enjoyed relative peace, with minimal terrorist presence. However, recent developments indicate a troubling shift in militancy from the Kashmir Valley to the previously peaceful Pir Panjal region. Understanding the factors contributing to this shift and resurgence is crucial for crafting effective counter-terrorism strategies and ensuring lasting peace in the region.

Historically, militancy in Jammu and Kashmir was concentrated in the Kashmir Valley. The region was a hotbed of terrorist activities, with local recruitment and cross-border infiltration from Pakistan. However, a decline in local recruitment and increased counter-terrorism efforts in the Valley have pushed militants to shift their focus to the Pir Panjal region.

This shift became evident on June 9, when a bus carrying pilgrims was ambushed in Reasi, leading to the deaths of nine individuals, including a two-year-old child, and injuring 43 others. This attack was part of a broader pattern of escalating violence, with militants targeting multiple locations in Kathua and Doda districts shortly thereafter, resulting in further casualties. Since October 2021, the Pir Panjal region has witnessed a series of terrorist ambushes and attacks, particularly targeting the Indian Army and civilians.

Factors Contributing to the Resurgence

One of the primary factors behind the resurgence of terrorism in the Pir Panjal region is the demilitarization that occurred after the area was declared a zero-militancy zone prior to 2018. The thinning out of troops created a security vacuum that militants have exploited to establish new bases and regroup. The first major troop reduction followed the ceasefire agreement with Pakistan in 2002, and a subsequent reduction occurred after the China-India border skirmishes in 2020. With reduced military oversight, militants found it easier to infiltrate and operate in the region, taking advantage of the sparse presence of security forces to conduct their activities with less risk of detection or interception.

The demilitarization inadvertently provided militants with the opportunity to reorganize and intensify their activities in Pir Panjal. The absence of a robust military presence allowed them to exploit the terrain and local support networks more effectively, enabling sustained operations and attacks against security forces and civilian targets. This security vacuum underscores the importance of maintaining a vigilant and adequately resourced security apparatus in sensitive border regions like Pir Panjal to prevent militant resurgence and ensure the safety and stability of the area.

Cultural and Linguistic Affinities

The cultural and linguistic affinities between the people of Pir Panjal and those across the Line of Control (LoC) play a crucial role in the resurgence of terrorism in the region. These affinities create an environment where militants can easily find safe havens and blend seamlessly into local communities. The shared language, attire, and customs between the locals and militants make it exceedingly challenging for security forces to distinguish between residents and infiltrators. This cultural similarity allows militants to operate with a lower risk of detection, facilitating their ability to plan and execute attacks without drawing undue attention.

In the Pir Panjal region, the population shares a common dialect with those across the LoC, which significantly reduces the likelihood of militants being identified as outsiders. The traditional attire and customs further blur the lines between locals and infiltrators, enabling militants to move about more freely. This cultural camouflage is a stark contrast to the situation in the Kashmir Valley, where linguistic and cultural differences often make it easier for security forces to identify and apprehend foreign militants.

The shared cultural and linguistic traits also foster a degree of empathy and support among some sections of the local population, who may see the militants as their own. This support, whether active or passive, provides militants with logistical assistance, intelligence, and refuge, complicating the efforts of security forces. Moreover, the close-knit nature of these communities means that militants can rely on local networks for sustenance and protection, further entrenching their presence in the region.

Understanding these cultural and linguistic affinities is crucial for security agencies aiming to counter the militant threat effectively. Strategies need to be sensitive to these nuances, employing local knowledge and community engagement to identify and neutralize the terrorist elements. By leveraging the insights of local residents and fostering trust, security forces can better navigate the cultural landscape of Pir Panjal, disrupting the militants’ ability to exploit these affinities for their nefarious purposes.

Geographical Advantages and Local Support

The dense forests and rugged terrain of the Pir Panjal region provide ideal cover for militants. The proximity to the Line of Control (LoC) facilitates cross-border infiltration, allowing militants to slip into the area undetected. The challenging topography, characterized by steep slopes and dense vegetation, makes it difficult for security forces to conduct operations and pursue militants, giving terrorists an upper hand in guerrilla warfare. These geographical features allow militants to establish hideouts, move stealthily, and launch attacks with relative impunity, leveraging the natural environment to their advantage.

The socio-political dynamics of the Pir Panjal region play a crucial role in the resurgence of terrorism. The local Muslim population harbors grievances rooted in perceived discrimination and harassment by the local Hindu community, particularly since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019. The abrogation, which revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, has been a flashpoint, exacerbating tensions and feelings of alienation among the local Muslim population. These grievances have created a sense of alienation and resentment, which militants have exploited to gain tacit support from some sections of the local community. The local population’s historical and cultural connections with those across the LoC further complicate the situation, as these ties can sometimes translate into sympathy or support for militant activities.

External influences, particularly from Pakistan, continue to play a significant role in the resurgence of terrorism in Pir Panjal. Pakistan-based militant groups have been known to provide logistical support, training, and funding to terrorists operating in Jammu and Kashmir. The recent attacks have been attributed to the desperation of Pakistan, referred to as the “exporter of terror” by Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha. The sustained support from across the border has enabled militants to carry out high-profile attacks and maintain a presence in the region despite counter-terrorism efforts. This support includes sophisticated training in guerrilla warfare, advanced weaponry, and financial resources, which bolster the militants’ capabilities and resilience.

Furthermore, the local support network within the Pir Panjal region significantly enhances the militants’ operational effectiveness. Some locals, driven by socio-political grievances and economic incentives, provide militants with intelligence, shelter, and supplies. This local support is often rooted in the belief that the militants’ cause aligns with their own grievances and aspirations. The presence of these support networks makes it challenging for security forces to root out militancy, as militants can rely on local sympathizers for protection and logistical assistance. This intertwining of local dynamics, geographical advantages, and external support creates a complex and resilient insurgency in the Pir Panjal region, necessitating a multifaceted and sustained approach to counter-terrorism efforts.

 Local Support and Perceived Benefits

According to credible reports, there is tacit support for terrorists among the local Muslim population. Some locals express relief with the resurgence of terrorism, attributing it to improved behavior from the local Hindu population since the rise in terror attacks.

Understanding these complex socio-political dynamics is crucial for crafting effective counterterrorism strategies. Reports indicate that the local Muslim population’s grievances stem from perceived discrimination and harassment by the local Hindu community since August 5, 2019. An anonymous young Muslim from Poonch highlighted that the resurgence of terrorism has seemingly softened the behavior of local Hindus. He claimed that, post-August 5, 2019, local Hindus subjected Muslims to continuous fear, which hindered routine activities such as rearing cows or seeking cattle medical check-ups.

Addressing these underlying grievances and perceptions is essential for security forces aiming to undermine local support for terrorists and restore stability in the Pir Panjal region. Efforts should focus on fostering trust between communities, promoting dialogue, and implementing inclusive policies that address the concerns of all residents impartially.

Moving Forward

Despite the progress made, persistent threats remain. The ability of militant groups to adapt and evolve, the continuous inflow of resources from across the border, and the underlying socio-political issues pose significant challenges to the security forces and the administration. Vigilance and proactive measures are essential to counter these threats effectively.

A comprehensive strategy is needed to address the surge in terrorism in the Pir Panjal region. This includes sustained counter-terrorism operations, effective border management, community engagement, and socio-economic development. Ensuring that the local population feels secure and involved in the region’s progress is crucial for long-term peace and stability.

The resurgence of terrorism in Pir Panjal is a multifaceted issue rooted in geographical, socio-political, and economic factors. The recent attacks underscore the need for a comprehensive and sustained approach to counter-terrorism efforts. By addressing the underlying issues, enhancing security operations, and fostering community engagement, it is possible to counter the surge in terrorism and pave the way for lasting peace and development in the Pir Panjal region. The shadows of terror may have returned, but the resolve to overcome them remains stronger than ever.