Sheikh Sameer
In September 2024, a historic chapter was added to the annals of Jammu and Kashmir’s political journey. For the first time since the abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35A, the Union Territory witnessed its maiden assembly elections.
With emotions running high and political narratives centered around identity, dignity, and lost status, the National Conference (NC) emerged as the single largest party, forming a coalition government with the Indian National Congress and CPI(M).
The victory was resounding, but the reasons behind it were deeply rooted in emotion and sentiment. Many remember the impassioned plea by NC’s Vice President and now Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, who, during a campaign speech in Ganderbal, removed his skull cap and beseeched people for their votes. His words during campaigining at many places still echo in the memory of many: “If you are happy with the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A, then don’t vote for us. But if you are not happy, choose the National Conference, because we are not PDP who will betray you.”
This emotionally charged appeal swayed thousands. People were made to believe that the restoration of special status was not just a possibility but a top priority if the NC came to power. The campaign virtually made Article 370 and 35A more important than issues like employment, education, healthcare, and youth welfare.
Six months down the line, the tide seems to be turning.
Erosion of Faith: From Aspiration to Frustration
The expectations were sky-high. The NC, having governed the erstwhile state several times before, came back to power after a long political exile, but under very different circumstances. This was not the Jammu and Kashmir of pre-2019. The region had been transformed into a Union Territory. The constitutional framework had changed, and so had the aspirations of the people.
One of the NC’s major promises before the elections was to create 1 lakh jobs as a priority. Six months in, there hasn’t been a single concrete step taken in this direction. Youth, who had rallied behind Omar Abdullah in the hope of dignified employment, now feel disillusioned. The silence on job creation has raised serious concerns, especially as unemployment continues to plague both Jammu and Kashmir divisions.
Adding salt to wounds is the growing discontent over reservation policies. NC’s own MP from Srinagar, Aga Ruhullah Mehdi, who has emerged as a rare voice of dissent from within the party, has been vocally raising issues that the ruling government has conveniently sidelined. His speeches and statements, especially on youth-related concerns, have garnered massive support on the ground.
The opposition, too, seems far more active and aligned with public sentiment. Waheed ur Rehman Parra, a young and articulate leader, has taken to the streets and the assembly to raise genuine issues of the valley’s populace, from unemployment to human rights, from transparency in governance to regularization of casual workers.
The Waqf Amendment Bill Controversy
A recent amendment in the Waqf Act was welcomed by the majority of the muslims. However, it was opposed also by many, states like Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, elected Muslim and non-Muslim MLAs alike stood up in their legislative assemblies to protest and even passed resolutions opposing the bill. This was seen not just as political resistance but as a defense of religious institutions, minority rights, and community faith.
However, in Jammu and Kashmir, where over 50 MLAs in the legislative assembly belong to the Muslim community, no debate was allowed on the bill. The Speaker of the Assembly refused to entertain discussions, citing that the issue was sub judice in the Supreme Court. This triggered massive criticism, not just from opposition benches but also from civil society.
The silence from the valley’s ruling lawmakers was interpreted as betrayal. People expected their representatives to at least raise voices in the assembly if not reverse the amendment. Speaking up wouldn’t have undone the bill, but it could have shown solidarity with the rest of the nation’s Muslim community. Instead, the silence was deafening, prompting many to question whether the assembly was merely a stage for drama, or a genuine forum for the people’s voice.
The Regularization Bill That Never Was
But when the time came, chaos in the assembly ensured the bill was never discussed. Many believe that the commotion was deliberately orchestrated to sabotage the passing of the bill. The intent appeared clear—when the Chief Minister can sanction funds for luxury cars for ministers, and when MLAs can enjoy salary hikes, then why not regularize workers who have been the backbone of governance for over a decade?
This incident has only added to the growing perception that the ruling NC is more concerned with comfort than commitment, more focused on power than public welfare.
By-Elections in Budgam and Nagrota: Deciding the Pulse of the People
In this backdrop of growing dissatisfaction and crumbling faith, the upcoming by-elections in Budgam and Nagrota have suddenly become more than just a routine democratic exercise—they are being seen as a litmus test for the NC government.
These two seats are crucial, both demographically and politically. Budgam, situated in the heart of the Kashmir valley, represents the emotional and political epicenter of NC’s traditional vote bank. Nagrota, on the other hand, with its mixed demography in the Jammu region, is a barometer for public sentiment outside the valley.
If the NC wins these seats comfortably, it may still claim that its core support base is intact. But if there is a shift towards opposition parties like PDP, Apni Party, or even independent candidates, it will be a clear sign that the ground is slipping beneath their feet.
Shifting Political Tones and Broken Promises
What’s more telling is the shifting tone of Omar Abdullah himself. Post-election, the emphasis on restoring Article 370 has diminished significantly. In his initial public interactions, the Chief Minister appeared more focused on governance and development, which, while pragmatic, sharply contrasted with the promises made during campaigning.
This shift hasn’t gone unnoticed. The youth, in particular, feel that they were emotionally manipulated in the name of identity politics. Now, with joblessness rising and the political leadership seemingly enjoying perks and power, the disillusionment is real and palpable.
Moreover, several MLAs from the ruling coalition have publicly raised concerns about the lack of progress, the increasing gap between the public and administration, and the unfulfilled promises from the ruling dispensation.
The Road Ahead
The by-elections will be watched closely—not just by political analysts and journalists but by every household in Jammu and Kashmir. People want to know if their vote made a difference. They want accountability. They want progress. Most importantly, they want to see if any party is truly willing to serve rather than rule.
In such a climate, the Budgam and Nagrota by-polls will not just decide two seats. They will test the credibility of the National Conference, challenge the sincerity of its leadership, and reveal the direction in which the political winds are blowing in Jammu and Kashmir.
The mood in the valley and Jammu is changing. From a romanticized emotional electorate, the people are becoming more result-oriented. They are beginning to ask questions, hold leaders accountable, and vote not just for promises but for performance.
If the National Conference wants to maintain its foothold in the new Jammu and Kashmir, it will need to go beyond skull caps and emotional appeals. It must deliver—on jobs, on justice, on genuine empowerment.
The Budgam and Nagrota by-elections may be a small electoral exercise on paper, but they carry the weight of public perception, policy failures, and political responsibility. Come polling day, we may finally get a clearer picture of whether the people still believe in the promises of the past or are ready to demand a better future.
M S Nazki
The Kashmir Dialogues
