The Kashmir Dialogues
The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh has once again put the spotlight on the nation’s fragile democracy and the pervasive influence of Islamist ideologies within its borders. With over 440 protesters killed in just three weeks, Bangladesh is teetering on the edge of chaos. The controversial reinstatement of the reservation quota for freedom fighters in civil services by the Supreme Court sparked these protests, but the underlying currents run much deeper. The recent developments in Bangladesh not only threaten the stability of the region but also have serious implications for India, particularly regarding the resurgence of Jamaat-e-Islami and its potential to reignite terrorism in Kashmir.
The violent protests in Bangladesh began as a response to the Supreme Court’s decision on June 5, 2024, to reinstate the reservation quota for freedom fighters in civil services—a policy that had been abolished in 2018. What started as a public outcry against perceived injustice quickly escalated into widespread unrest. The situation deteriorated when student groups affiliated with the ruling Awami League clashed with protesters, leading to widespread violence and numerous casualties.
Despite Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s efforts to quell the unrest by revoking the quota, the protests continued unabated, suggesting that the unrest was not merely about the quota system but part of a larger, orchestrated movement aimed at destabilizing the government. As the situation spiraled out of control, the Bangladesh Army intervened, ultimately forcing Prime Minister Hasina to resign and flee the country. The subsequent announcement by the army chief of plans to form an interim government further indicated the deep-seated political motives behind the unrest.
Jamaat-e-Islami, a powerful Islamist political organization in Bangladesh, has a long history of opposing secular governance. Rooted in conservative and Islamist ideologies, Jamaat-e-Islami has consistently sought to reshape Bangladesh into an Islamic state. The organization’s ideology is closely aligned with that of Pakistan, and it has historically received support from Pakistan’s intelligence agencies. Jamaat-e-Islami’s opposition to the independence of Bangladesh in 1971 and its involvement in atrocities during the independence war are well-documented, making it a contentious player in Bangladesh’s political landscape.
The recent unrest has provided Jamaat-e-Islami with an opportunity to reassert its influence. As the secular government of Sheikh Hasina crumbled, Jamaat-e-Islami and its allies began to push for greater representation in any new government that might be formed. The army’s willingness to consider these demands suggests that Jamaat-e-Islami’s influence within the military and political establishment is stronger than ever.
The potential empowerment of Jamaat-e-Islami as a result of the current political crisis in Bangladesh could have far-reaching consequences. If Jamaat-e-Islami succeeds in gaining a foothold in the interim government or the subsequent political landscape, it is likely to push for policies that align with its Islamist agenda. This could include the further Islamization of Bangladesh’s legal and educational systems, as well as increased repression of secular and minority groups.
More concerning, however, is the possibility that Jamaat-e-Islami’s rise could embolden Islamist extremists across the region. The organization’s ties to radical elements, both within Bangladesh and in neighboring countries, could lead to a resurgence of extremist activities, including terrorism.
Pakistan’s historical ties to Jamaat-e-Islami and its vested interest in destabilizing secular governments in Bangladesh make it a key player in the current crisis. Since Bangladesh’s independence, Pakistan has sought to undermine its sovereignty through various means, including supporting Islamist groups like Jamaat-e-Islami. The current unrest in Bangladesh presents an opportunity for Pakistan to reassert its influence in the region.
By supporting Jamaat-e-Islami and other Islamist factions within Bangladesh, Pakistan aims to weaken the secular fabric of the country and create a government more sympathetic to its interests. This could include aligning Bangladesh’s foreign policy more closely with Pakistan’s, particularly in areas where the two countries have shared interests, such as in the context of Islamist movements across South Asia.
The resurgence of Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh poses a significant risk to India, particularly in the context of Kashmir. Jamaat-e-Islami has historical ties to Islamist movements in Kashmir and has been linked to various terrorist organizations that have operated in the region. If Jamaat-e-Islami gains power or influence in Bangladesh, it could embolden similar groups in Kashmir, leading to a resurgence of terrorism in the region.
The ideological alignment between Jamaat-e-Islami and the Islamist militants in Kashmir could lead to increased support for terrorist activities, both in terms of funding and recruitment. The porous borders between Bangladesh and India, particularly in the northeastern states, could facilitate the movement of extremists and the smuggling of arms and resources to support insurgency efforts in Kashmir.
Beyond the direct threat of terrorism, the potential rise of an Islamist government in Bangladesh could have broader strategic implications for India. A government in Dhaka that is more aligned with Pakistan and Islamist ideologies could undermine India’s efforts to maintain regional stability and counter terrorism. This could lead to increased tensions between India and Bangladesh, particularly if Bangladesh becomes a safe haven for militants or begins to support anti-India activities.
Additionally, the instability in Bangladesh could spill over into India’s northeastern states, which have historically been sensitive to political developments in Bangladesh. The influx of refugees, cross-border smuggling, and the potential for radicalization of local populations are all risks that India would need to manage carefully.
Diplomatic and Economic Impact
The potential for a government change in Bangladesh that favors Islamist forces could also have diplomatic and economic repercussions for India. Bangladesh is a key partner in India’s “Act East” policy, and any shift in its political alignment could complicate India’s strategic objectives in the region. Economically, the instability could disrupt trade and investment between the two countries, particularly if relations sour or if Bangladesh becomes more isolated on the international stage.
The recent unrest in Bangladesh and the potential rise of Jamaat-e-Islami represent a significant challenge not only for Bangladesh but also for India. The empowerment of Jamaat-e-Islami could lead to a resurgence of Islamist extremism in the region, with direct implications for the security and stability of Kashmir. India must remain vigilant and proactive in addressing these risks, both through diplomatic channels and by strengthening its security apparatus in vulnerable regions.
As Bangladesh moves towards the formation of a new government, the role of Jamaat-e-Islami and its influence on the country’s future trajectory will be critical to watch. For India, ensuring that Bangladesh remains a stable, secular, and friendly neighbor is of paramount importance, and this will require careful engagement with all stakeholders in the region.
Rameez Makdoomi
